Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 16.085984 18.409292 21.120480 24.561973 28.879295 34.207940 41.433733
2025-02-16 13.459045 16.363883 20.083191 25.344330 32.863784 43.701267 61.540800
2025-02-23 11.697141 14.760199 18.918220 25.239028 35.147273 51.227775 82.436275
2025-03-02 10.462278 13.572549 17.986104 25.086805 37.099837 58.740821 107.965004
2025-03-09 9.638447 12.804582 17.474452 25.380543 39.747068 68.452377 146.074308
2025-03-16 8.724306 11.777236 16.400345 24.511227 40.031714 73.584691 178.346436
2025-03-23 8.138299 11.166727 15.878655 24.460537 41.826489 82.873384 236.030845
2025-03-30 7.443921 10.318057 14.866538 23.350957 41.159769 85.896183 276.492419
2025-04-06 6.809239 9.508810 13.834921 22.049735 39.779087 86.490767 308.897555
2025-04-13 6.305729 8.869469 13.028406 21.065641 38.900916 88.248590 353.617378
2025-04-20 6.424211 9.235726 13.970070 23.634226 47.089393 123.795605 798.071724
2025-04-27 6.266629 9.130447 14.065601 24.496111 51.356599 150.363606 1524.621627
2025-05-04 5.833698 8.546528 13.266403 23.388531 50.126752 154.140198 2007.702752
2025-05-11 5.669883 8.411623 13.287903 24.107478 54.478979 189.774434 5733.693497
2025-05-18 5.425076 8.116531 12.974990 24.009662 56.342566 215.857409 18106.267559
2025-05-25 5.198259 7.836761 12.664486 23.868046 58.051963 244.786892 168583.551075
2025-06-01 5.034521 7.657547 12.533458 24.141288 61.343199 293.213921 NaN
2025-06-08 4.776565 7.292442 12.000632 23.332331 60.437157 306.178076 NaN
2025-06-15 4.612165 7.088160 11.777103 23.285132 62.466504 353.818119 NaN
2025-06-22 4.368246 6.725211 11.203026 22.251200 60.272030 352.515111 NaN
2025-06-29 4.122993 6.349715 10.582602 21.036745 57.085281 335.904998 NaN
2025-07-06 3.919003 6.042770 10.088664 20.116835 54.949674 330.629532 NaN
2025-07-13 4.016966 6.300895 10.789541 22.515300 68.003033 599.018686 NaN